But there’s the hitch: “momentary.” Indeed, the current rally could start to fade as early as the beginning of 2014, says James Sweeney, a global fixed income strategist at Credit Suisse. While he and his colleagues predict a soft landing in most markets, rather than a crash, they are predicting a landing nonetheless. Which will lose altitude first? For an answer to that question, one need only look to the summer scare. After the Federal Reserve said in May that it might slow down its monthly asset purchases later in the year, investors dumped emerging market stocks and bonds in a panic. At the same time, they briefly started demanding higher yields from less creditworthy borrowers in developed markets. Investors reversed course when the Fed backed off the “taper talk,” but the incident does suggest that any impending pullback will likely show up in relatively risky assets first.Credit Markets Surge And in the meantime? The near-zero interest rates that major central banks have been enforcing for the last few years have been great for U.S. corporate borrowers. Whether in leveraged loans or high-yield bonds, investors have eagerly sought out riskier assets in search of decent returns. In doing so, they’ve driven down yields of even the lowest-rated corporate bonds while also accepting less onerous terms in leveraged loan deals than at any time in recent memory
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